After a 12-4 ATS start for underdogs in Week 1, they went 9-7 ATS in Weeks 2 and 3 and 7-9 ATS in Weeks 4 and 5. Road underdogs are ATS through five weeks, so the previous trend also comes into effect here. In Week 6, there are three games that fit this mold — Houston at Indianapolis, Las Vegas at Denver, and Seattle at Pittsburgh. This trend continues to be a moneymaker if you play every game blindly, and there are very few long term trends you can say that about. • Tom Brady had been favored in 74 straight regular-season games entering this season, the longest streak by any QB in the Super Bowl era, but that streak comes to an end this week. Ironically, the next-longest active streak belongs to Drew Brees, who is favored for the 10th straight start this week.
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With fans back in stadiums, there was the expectation that home teams would have a disproportionate amount of success, but that has not been the case so far. In Week 6, road teams finished 9-5 straight up and 9-5 ATS. Luckily for the betting public, favorites fared well in Week 6 as they finished 10-4 straight up and 8-6 ATS. 2021 has been an up-and-down year for favorites, though, as they are straight up but just on the year. I don’t expect the favorites to overwhelmingly cover again this week.
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The only non-cover was the teams’ Week 1 matchup last season (the Eagles won by five as 10-point Wanna Bet? Here’s Where All 50 States Stand On Legalizing Sports Gambling favorites). • Miami went 9-3 ATS in its final 12 games last season, all as an underdog. After another long offseason, Week 1 of the new NFL campaign has finally arrived. Picking underdogs has been profitable in Week 1 of late, by the way. During the past eight seasons, underdogs have covered 56.3% of the time ( ) in Week 1. Los Angeles’ offense averages 0.49 points per play compared to the 0.38 per play Tennessee’s defense gives up .
He has tacked on 129 rushing yards on 24 carries with one touchdown. Travis Kelce has been targeted 32 times and added 312 yards plus three touchdowns. Kansas City and its opponents have combined to hit the over three out of four times this season. The Chiefs allow 0.49 points per play , while the Bills pick up 0.46 per play . The Bills have the second-ranked offense in the NFL (33.5 points per game), and will be up against the Chiefs’ 31st-ranked defense (31.3 ppg). The Chiefs rank 27th in the league, committing seven turnovers this season, while the Bills are first with 11 turnovers forced.
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After initial optimism that he would make his season debut in this high-stakes divisional showdown, Michael Thomas remains on the PUP list after not practicing Wednesday or Thursday. Considering how loaded the offense is around him, it comes as no surprise. That 600th career TD pass was one of four he had on the day last week. Leonard Fournette continues to have a clamp on the lead role in the Bucs’ backfield. He piled up another 81 yards rushing and found the end zone in last week’s blowout win. Even without Antonio Brown, the Buccaneers had no trouble in the receiving game.
Then there’s the Denver Broncos, who appear to have their quarterback of the future in Drew Lock and a completely new offense loaded with young weapons. Their job is to not only set the initial betting lines but also move them afterward based on how the public is wagering. It’s extremely rare for an NFL game to be defined by 5 or 6 points, so if you take this line you have to feel comfortable that Baltimore will win by at least one touchdown. Gordon is back in the NFL to try to support Kelce and wide receiver Tyreek Hill as an extra big-play weapon for Mahomes. The Chiefs have been looking for a reliable No. 2 option for the outside to complement the versatile Hill and Gordon has the speed to be schemed open in his first action.
More recently, the moving back of the extra-point distance from 2 yards to 15 yards was another. These are very important dates to know, because if you want to understand how key numbers have changed over the years, you have to be able to pinpoint the years where the rules changed. The changes mentioned in the paragraph above led to more scoring. Everyone who has ever successfully bet on NFL games has heard about key numbers. A key number is one that occurs more frequently than random chance would suggest. The Dolphins had one of the best defenses in football last year too, especially at home.
Nfl Betting Trends: Check Out The Latest On The Week 9 Matchups
In this article, we break down the benefits and negatives of the following or fading public money in the NFL. There literally are hundreds upon thousands of handicapping advice that you will receive on a simple google search for NFL Handicapping. Some of it is good advice and some of it is a waste of time.
Last week saw nine underdogs cover, six of which won straight up. The total has moved up a point to 57.5 as 86% of the handle is on the over. That money is from 61% of the bets — the sharps like this to be a high-scoring game, thanks to the defensive deficiencies of both teams. Not so far in 2021 as home teams are a combined straight up.